Wynn's Ranking
2004 Oregon High School Football Standings
Current Rank | Results | Tally | All 80 Teams | Week 13 | Week 12 | Wynn's Bracket | Related | Football Clinic | How It Works | I Was There |

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Round 4 Summary, Dec 6
Semifinal Results

Autzen Stadium

Lake Oswego vs. Sprague
Saturday, December 11, 3:30 PM
Directions to Eugene  Map

Past Weeks
Sept 13
Sept 20
Sept 27
Oct 4
Oct 11
Oct 18
Oct 25
Nov 1
Nov 8
Nov 15
Nov 22
Nov 29
Dec 6
 

Playoffs
Round 1
Round 2
Quarter
Semi
Final

Friday night at PGE Park was one of the greatest nights of High School football I've ever seen, as Jesuit met Sprague and Beaverton faced Lake Oswego.  Between high quality play and unexpected upsets, the 2004 Semi-finals, double header was one for the history books. 

In game number one, Lake Oswego immediately took charge and controlled both the ball and the clock, allowing Beaverton only six plays in the first quarter.  At halftime Nick Lomax had hit 12 of 13 passes.  Lake Oswego out-scored Beaverton 21 to 13.

In the second half, Beaverton was held to a field goal, while Lake Oswego scored another 21 to end the game 42 to 16.  The sophomore, Will Darkins, emerged as a talented running back, carrying the ball for 137 yards in 21 carries.

In game number two, Sprague stopped Jesuit's first drive and answered with a TD.  But Jesuit appeared to be in control as the half ended 28 to 17 in Jesuit's favor. 

But it was only an appearance as Sprague out-scored Jesuit 32-0 in the second half to win 49 to 28.  The Junior, Mike Cowan emerged as Sprague's top rusher with 18 carries for 211 yards.

Met -  Both Metro teams fell this week.  Good-bye to 2004 for Metro.

TRL - Lake Oswego performed 29 points above expectations to beat Beaverton 42 to 16.

Val - Sprague performed 29 points above expectations to beat Jesuit 49 to 28.

 

I Was There - Lake Oswego vs. South Medford

The Quarter Finals will go down in history as "Lake Oswego Night", over-turning virtually every game pundit forecast, as Lake Oswego beat South Medford 57-27. More specifically, it will be remembered as Nick Lomax night, with 355 passing yards and 550 yards total.  Quarterback Nick Lomax lead the way for Lake Oswego's complete domination over South Medford, scoring 31 points above expectations, and raising their rank on Wynn’s Ranking from 10th to 5th.  see results

In my interview with Nick Lomax, I asked about his style change from earlier in the year when he used a very athletic, elusive style of fades, draws, and doglegs that kept the rushers frustrated, to the cool and composed style he used against South Medford, in which he rarely left the pocket.   He explained, “I'm more of a pocket passer now, but I really haven't had to get out of the pocket lately, save for Friday, so I guess my style changes depending on what the defense does.”

Obviously, it takes a great front line to make the opportunity for such styles of play, but also a quarterback with splendid field awareness that is able to exploit opportunities.   Six different receivers, caught passes Friday night helping Lomax complete 15 of 19 passes, including Andrew Seidman and James Earle.  Four different receivers carried passes into the end-zone for touch downs, including J.T. Coury, Dallas Hogenson, and Ryan Hilliard.  Kevin Maher caught two touch down passes.

Dallas Hogenson and Kevin Maher were impressive on both offense and defense.  Between interceptions, great tackles, and blocked passes they stopped South Medford’s progress for nearly three quarters of the game.

But don't overlook Lake Oswego's 200 yards running.  The ability to execute both the run and the pass kept the defense guessing.  South Medford never knew which end of their sinking ship to patch.

When I asked about Lake Oswego’s success, Nick Lomax told me, “As far as our success is concerned, you're right about our receivers and line, but the coaches have great game-plans each week and our scout team does a great job of providing opposing defenses and offenses for us.”
 

Related

OSAA - Brackets - Schools
High School Addresses
Oregon City HS - Athletics - Football
Yahoo's Oregon High School List

PGE Park
Oregon Sports Authority - HS Athletics

Media

Oregonlive.com - Prep Football - Chat
KATU Sports Extra
KFXX 1080 The Fan
KUIK 1360 Westside
Oregon Magazine - Sports
iHigh.com
OregonPreps.com (rivals.com)
OregonSportsScores.org
http://www.nw-sports.com
Scout.com - eDuck  - Beaver

Personal
Wynn's Ranking
Gary Haliski's MWLNow
SOCToday.com - Football
MetroLeague.org - Football
WestLinnFootball.org
2A Statesmen
HilHi Youth Football

ProMax Events
NW Football
Oregon Football League

oregoncity.com
nwhelp.com
ceremonydove.com

 

How it Works

Wynn's Ranking is based on the idea that every game reveals something; the idea that when the rankings change, it means previous rankings were wrong. 

Each week, rankings are recalculated hundreds of cycles for every game in the season based on a system of error distribution.  When a team plays better than expected, it raises the ranking of everyone they played in the past.  When a team plays worse than expected, it reduces the ranking of every team they played in the past.  As the errors are distributed they begin to cancel each other and level out.  The result is a ranking that becomes more accurate each week.

That's why we've hit 20 out of 21 predictions in a week.  That's why we showed Roseburg and Barlow in the top ten, weeks before any other poll.  That's why we were able to predict 28 out of 32 playoff seeds BEFORE week nine.  That's why we avoided the major re-orderings the other polls experienced this year as each number one team was defeated. 
 

Football Reporters Clinic Wanted

Do you agree that OregonLive, KFXX, Les Schwab, and other interested parties should buy a breakfast and lunch for those who call in scores on Friday nights, and teach us to become better reporters?  I propose these topics: 

All about Oregon Prep Leagues, Schools
High School Rules
Ref Signals
Basic formations
How to take notes during play
What abbreviations to use
How to accumulate stats
What to report
How to say it
How to get the interview
Accessories - 4X binoculars, etc.
How to handle weather
When to arrive
Where to sit
Interesting Video Clips

What do you want to see in such a clinic?
mail: football(a)oregoncity.com

 

Week 13 - Semi-Final Standing

Rank Team Last Rank Conf Final Opponent Wynn's Prediction Sherman Damore Result best
1 Sprague Olympians 2 Val Lake Oswego Lakers Sprague by 3 Sprague by 4 Lake Oswego by 7 Sprague by 3 Wynn
2 Lake Oswego Lakers 5 TRL Sprague Olympians -
3 Jesuit Crusaders 1 Met
4 Sheldon Irish 6 MWL
5 Westview Wildcats 4 Met
6 Roseburg Indians 7 SOC
7 South Eugene Axemen 8 MWL
8 Beaverton Beavers 3 Met
9 Clackamas Cavaliers 12 TRL
10 Barlow Bruins 11 MHC
11 Tigard Tigers 10 Pac9
18 Lakeridge Pacers 20 TRL
20 Tualatin Timberwolves 19 Pac9
27 West Linn Lions 27 TRL
36 Canby Cougars 34 Pac9
45 Milwaukie Mustangs 46 TRL
60 St. Helens Lions 63 TRL
66 Oregon City Pioneers 67 TRL

 

Thank you for putting a link on your website to this website. 

Round 3 Summary, Nov 29
Quarterfinal Results

PGE Park

Dec. 3 - Double Header
5:00 - Beaverton vs. Lake Oswego
8:00 - Jesuit vs. Sprague

Past Weeks
Sept 13
Sept 20
Sept 27
Oct 4
Oct 11
Oct 18
Oct 25
Nov 1
Nov 8
Nov 15
Nov 22
Nov 29
 
 


 

Playoffs
Round 1
Round 2
Quarter
Semi
Final


 

Met -  The Metro league now represents half of this week's semi-final playoff match ups.  Jesuit beat Central Catholic by 26 points, 6 points below expectations.  Beaverton beat Grant by 24 points, 12 points above expectations.   On Friday, Jesuit meets Sprague.  Beaverton meets Lake Oswego.

TRL - Lake Oswego came on strong, beating South Medford 31 points above expectations.. They face Beaverton on Friday.

Val - Sprague beat Lincoln by 28 points, 17 points above expectations.  They face Jesuit on Friday.

PIL  -  PIL lost both of their games this week.  Grant performed 12 points below expectations.  Lincoln scored 17 points below expectations.

SOC - South Medford lost by 30 points in a game they were expected to win.

MHC - Central Catholic performed 6 points above expectations but lost to Jesuit by 26 points. 
 

I Was There - Lake Oswego vs. South Medford

The Quarter Finals will go down in history as "Lake Oswego Night", over-turning virtually every game pundit forecast, as Lake Oswego beat South Medford 57-27. More specifically, it will be remembered as Nick Lomax night, with 355 passing yards and 550 yards total.  Quarterback Nick Lomax lead the way for Lake Oswego's complete domination over South Medford, scoring 31 points above expectations, and raising their rank on Wynn’s Ranking from 10th to 5th.  see results

In my interview with Nick Lomax, I asked about his style change from earlier in the year when he used a very athletic, elusive style of fades, draws, and doglegs that kept the rushers frustrated, to the cool and composed style he used against South Medford, in which he rarely left the pocket.   He explained, “I'm more of a pocket passer now, but I really haven't had to get out of the pocket lately, save for Friday, so I guess my style changes depending on what the defense does.”

Obviously, it takes a great front line to make the opportunity for such styles of play, but also a quarterback with splendid field awareness that is able to exploit opportunities.   Six different receivers, caught passes Friday night helping Lomax complete 15 of 19 passes, including Andrew Seidman and James Earle.  Four different receivers carried passes into the end-zone for touch downs, including J.T. Coury, Dallas Hogenson, and Ryan Hilliard.  Kevin Maher caught two touch down passes.

Dallas Hogenson and Kevin Maher were impressive on both offense and defense.  Between interceptions, great tackles, and blocked passes they stopped South Medford’s progress for nearly three quarters of the game.

But don't overlook Lake Oswego's 200 yards running.  The ability to execute both the run and the pass kept the defense guessing.  South Medford never knew which end of their sinking ship to patch.

When I asked about Lake Oswego’s success, Nick Lomax told me, “As far as our success is concerned, you're right about our receivers and line, but the coaches have great game-plans each week and our scout team does a great job of providing opposing defenses and offenses for us.”
 


 

 

Week 12 - Final Four Standing

Rank Team Last Rank Conf Semi-final Opponent Wynn's Prediction Sherman Damore Result best
1 Jesuit Crusaders 1 Met Sprague Olympians Jesuit by 8 Sprague by 4 Jesuit by 14 Sprague by 21 Sherman
2 Sprague Olympians 4 Val Jesuit Crusaders -
3 Beaverton Beavers 3 Met Lake Oswego Lakers Beaverton by 3 Beaverton by 3 Lake Oswego by 4 Lake Oswego by 26 Damore
4 Westview Wildcats 2 Met
5 Lake Oswego Lakers 10 TRL Beaverton Beavers -
6 Sheldon Irish 6 MWL
7 Roseburg Indians 5 SOC
8 South Eugene Axemen 7 MWL
9 Southridge Skyhawks 8 Met
10 Tigard Tigers 12 Pac9
11 Barlow Bruins 11 MHC
12 Clackamas Cavaliers 13 TRL
13 South Medford Panthers 9 SOC
17 Grant Generals 15 PIL
18 Lincoln Cardinals 16 PIL            
19 Tualatin Timberwolves 19 Pac9
20 Lakeridge Pacers 20 TRL
23 Central Catholic Rams 23 MHC
27 West Linn Lions 25 TRL
34 Canby Cougars 33 Pac9
41 Putnam Kingsmen 40 TRL
46 Milwaukie Mustangs 46 TRL
63 St. Helens Lions 63 TRL
67 Oregon City Pioneers 67 TRL


Tally
 
Win-Loss Accuracy
  Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Round 1 Round 2 Quarter Semi Final Total
Wynn 7-6 11-2 13-2 16-1 17-3 20-1 17-2 10-6 3-5 3-1 0-2 1-0 118-31
Damore   34-15 9-1 10-0 9-1 9-1 8-2 10-6 4-4 2-2 1-1 0-1 96-34
Sherman   36-13 9-1 8-2 8-2 7-3 9-1 10-6 3-5 3-1 1-1 1-0 95-35
 
Point Spread Accuracy
  Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Round 1 Round 2 Quarter Semi Final Total
Wynn       5 5 3 4 6 1 2 0 1 27
Damore       1 5 4 3 6 5 2 1 0 27
Sherman       3 4 3 4 6 2 0 1 0 23

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